just how accurately can you predict the draw in football more importantly how can you do it quickly in this video we’re gonna get straight into detail answering both of those questions by the end you’ll know exactly where to look first and how to antiscipate the draw in football I’ll be putting particular emphasis on how and why you need to focus on specific match relative information because depending on the teams and league the likelihood of a draw will change in the Premier League teams consistently win around 46% of all home games and the draw occurs around 27 percent at the time whereas in the lower leagues the draw averages are considerably lower but there’s a better way to consistently predict a draw other than just looking at stats as I’ll explain in a minute but before I do I just want to take ten seconds out to let you know about prize draw we’re doing in this video recently we’ve given away a lot of cash on the channel and previous uploads this time round we’re giving away ten geekstoy licenses so you can trade the football efficiently winners selected from the comments shortly first it’s important to say that not every draw is predictable so keeping the powder dry is important when you’re anything less than confident however some football matches are extremely predictable when it comes to the draw like these two as I’ll explain now but first you wanna ask yourself what is the intent for both teams do they desperately need the win will the drawer suffice and how’s the result gonna affect future fixtures knowing their agenda puts you in a stronger position to predict the draw before we even look at things like expected goals a famous example list would be Manchester United when they won the league back in 2011 some of you may even remember it they’re playing away to Blackburn Rovers who just a few points away from relegation themselves around 20 minutes before the end of the game Rooney scored for a penalty making it an equaliser from that point onwards become the dullest game ever as neither team had an incentive to score Man United won the league and Blackburn was safe so both teams were happy with the draw another example was quite controversial at the time was back when Denmark and Sweden both needed a two nill draw to qualify from their groups during the euros there were 31 shots in that match but once the scoreline hit two all both teams were content from that point onwards the draw was more than predictable but beyond fundamental characteristics like this it’s more important to look at historical data patterns in previous matches because applying them to the present can be a good indicator when you’re trying to predict to draw typically the people that follow this channel are quite shrewd so I’ll get straight to the key points which are expected goals possession the timeframes and how money has changed the game over time but before I do if this videos of interest please consider giving it a quick thumbs up helps us improve visibility and gives us an idea on which content was received best so let’s tackle these four points one by one with some actionable tips and pointers you can go away and check out straight away I should probably also mention we uploaded a very popular video last week outlining specifics of 3 football betting strategies that work there’ll be a link in the description below and also in the end screen of this video if you haven’t seen that one before so check it out it’s highly recommended so what we’re looking for specifically in terms of predicting the draw now it’s an obvious and logical place to start but we’re going to look for the matches where they’re less tense on pitch there’s going to be less attacking and more possession of the ball if you want to think about it strategically as though you’re a football manager what the overall intent is and what you know you’d like the game’s outcome to be as a manager because this is often reflected on pitch thinking about it from a betting perspective is slightly different because it’s easier to predict a draw for a small section of time and then cash out those bets rather than predicting the entire matches outcome although you know that can be possible too so what sort of matches do you want to look at you want to look at matches where you know neither team can afford to lose particularly if you’re focusing on the first half of a football match big matches like Cup finals and that kind of stuff usually start really slow they’re very defensive on pitch and therefore you know there’s a draw within the first half you want to look at teams that are evenly matched again very logical particularly if they’re low score teams over a period of time will look at expected goals and stuff like that in a moment and how you can use that to your advantage but you really want to get deep and hunt on those game specific clues before the match even starts so when there’s evenly balanced odds between two teams in the match odds market that obviously identifies the fact that in terms of probability the market thinks they’re evenly matched and therefore there’s there’s a higher chance of there being a draw also look at things like this 2.5 goals market now if it’s under 2.0 or lower then the market is telling us there’s a 50% chance of there being two point five goals obviously there can’t be 0.5 goal in a football match that means there’s going to be more than two goals if the price on two point five goals is under 1.6 then it’s telling us there’s a sixty two point five percent chance there being less than two point five goals so just bear that in mind before the start it’s a good way of identifying the low-scoring matches the price on the two point five goals market is usually around about evens because typically you know depending on the league this is there’s around about 2.5 goals in each football match on average the correct score markets can also be a strong clue when identifying low-scoring matches and low goal line predictions because obviously they will be a short price you looking at games where its one all draw one nil nil nil and they’ll have very short so that will highlight the fact that there’s likely to be a low amount of goals now once the match actually starts because you know relevant information is the most important information then it’s good to see you know is this match behaving as expected more on that under moment with the expected goals but the more knowledge available to you the more chance of getting a correct prediction for a draw don’t bother looking at the league table unless you sort like ten matches into the season is also a good thing too because you can have that variance of results early on which can be quite misleading it’s always important to remember the opinion subjective and we want to focus solely on data and numbers to make up our opinion so on to the expected goals so first of all if you didn’t know expected goals is an analytical database that measures the probability of goals in a football match based on you know large historical day sets so you can’t really argue this the this is fact it’s important because it’s an accurate measurement free from personal bias which is something you see a lot in football it’s just there and it is quite definable so ensure it’s probably the best benchmark that we’ve got when it comes to deciding if a team are you know on four more per foot or performing on form on or not because you know quite honestly if the numbers don’t lie infogoal is a site that I would recommend to use for statistics and data they’ve got a decent little app there as well with an XG feature which is great to pull up with once a games on so what you need to look for is low expected goals quite obviously because the lower expected goals a higher chance of the draw so nil nil one-nil often the most reliable drawing score lines because the more goals there are the harder it becomes to actually predict a draw like predicting a three all draw is you know very very hard so just quickly as per the intro another giveaway having given away nearly 500 quid cash already this month we’re doing 10 free month subscriptions to the geekstoy trading software this time the process is simple I go to the recent comments on the channel filter out non subscribers and pick the winners at random here is hem winners on the screen this time around if you haven’t got back to this already please do the third point be in possession now I believe in being direct without the waffle so I’m not going to go on and waste your time on this one going through possession step by step basically you’re looking for similar traits that we’ve all just been talking about within expected goals and the previous problem as such the only difference being with possession stats it’s a more position there is for a team with little scoring intent the better it doesn’t necessarily matter if one team holding possession more as long as they aren’t converting that into serious goal attempts is sometimes better if one team is hogging the ball but can’t translate that to shots on target now the last two points time frames and how money has changed the game so going on to time frames prediction is a funny thing but information is absolutely paramount now info is time relative so it’s far easier to predict the draw nearer to the off and once it’s just started in play for a segment of time as I previously said rather than predicting that you know the score over the whole 90 minutes presuming you want to predict it for betting purposes it’s important to remember the you can cash out your bets on pretty much any platform it’s better to use an exchange obviously platforms like Betfair Smarkets etcetera etc because there’s lower Commission and you get better odds now every strategy has its place and time is a missing piece to the puzzle a lot of the time from a betting perspective it’s not what you’ve got it’s how you use it so focus hard on linking several indicators together and then ask yourself when and where will be the best time to have a bet open before cashing out in play that’s usually the best way to approach things so for example if you were to find a football match where there’s low expected goals in the match maybe you’ll find that from the unders overs market or the correct score market and then you see that one team in particular has a lower expected goals rating than the other and they’ve been performing in line with that expected goals rating recently and the same team has some solid possession stats now this is obviously an ideal opportunity but then the match starts and you can see that they are holding position on the ball they can’t necessarily afford to lose the match for whatever reason I think in this sort of situation it’d be fair to say that the first half is certainly going to be tighter there’s going to be easy opportunity to place an opening bet and then place a cash out bet or trade for a small amount and lock in a profit without too much risk the confirming signals on pitch in line with what you expected to see is the main thing I’m trying to highlight here in conjunction with the low expected goals etc etc so consider setting yourself a maximum time frame when and where you expect this to happen and and you predict it to maintain a draw throughout the match if you like typically the first half less frantic and if it’s a high-pressure game then the teams can’t afford to lose then they start slower anyway so focus on those areas and last of all how money has changed the game so over the last decade outside investments come into football a lot more you see teams like Man City in the Premier League they’ve got stronger correlation but there’s more basically there’s more draws as time has come into the game and the higher the quality means the less variance in probability so evenly matched teams more consistent players means that draws more likely in particular on low-scoring matches top-tier football has become less competitive over the last ten years and you look at the as the draw statistics say that is actually increased 3% says more chance of a draw than ever before and the reason for it is the money that’s been poured into the game has brought more stability on pitch stability is crucial if you want to predict the draw and consistently win your bets as I previously said last week we uploaded three strategies so this channels show you how winning is done check it out by clicking here and don’t forget to subscribe to the channel for future uploads